If the Farmers’ Almanac is correct — the Almanac claims an accuracy rate of 80%-85%, but studies have shown it is closer to 50% — then Oklahoma and the south central region of the U.S. are in for periods of a wet winter whirlwind from late January into early February.

The Almanac’s extended winter weather forecast calls for widespread rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow.

Winter began December 21, but La Niña, which refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is expected to develop and hang on through the season. The effect of La Niña on the weather, along with the Almanac’s long-standing formula, indicates a wet and cold winter for most locations.

The coldest outbreak of the season is anticipated during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid Arctic air brings a sharp plunge in temperatures almost nationwide.

Despite the cautionary forecast, the southern plains may have it better than much of the nation, with a warmish winter and above average temperatures. But predictions call for a possible snowstorm of up to six inches in Oklahoma’s neck of the woods at the beginning of February.

The long-range forecast for the south central U.S. calls for unsettled weather today, and cold weather into next week. Predictions are for unseasonably cold temperatures the last weekend of the month, and unsettled, snowy conditions the first week of February, with some localities receiving up to six inches of snow.

For more than 200 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting long-range weather forecasts to help its followers plan ahead. These forecasts are created using “a tried-and-true formula that adapts to the mysteries of nature and the ever-changing world in which we live. The basis of our prediction method was developed by our founding editor according to correlations between celestial events and various meteorological conditions.”

The formula uses some of the original rules set forth back in 1818, but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as sunspots, the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors.

But according to most scientific analyses, the Farmers’ Almanac is only about 50% accurate with its weather predictions, which is roughly the same as flipping a coin, despite claims by the publication that it is 80%-85% accurate. Skeptics of the Almanac’s forecasting methods note that the publication relies on factors like sunspot activity and planetary alignment, which are not considered reliable indicators of weather patterns by modern meteorologists.